So I'm not going to write here about strobes or speedlites à la Strobist or joe mcnally, I'm going to write about Adobe Flash and the überhype around the Apple's decision not to support Adobe Flash on the iPad.
Following some of the conversations on Twitter last night I was struck by a comment from Robert Scoble, aka the Scobleizer, “Yikes @mattpat we need to get rid of Flash on @rackspace web site. Totally agreed. iPad is totally going to force companies to fix that. ”
Late in 2008, it was estimated that there were more than one billion personal computers in the world. In the US, Apple market share was around 8% and worldwide, Apple market share was less than 5%. While the absolute numbers have grown over the last years, the market share of Apple hasn't moved in any marked fashion.
Early in 2010, it was estimated that there were some 41 million iPhones around the world from Apple's sales figures, but that Apple had about 18% market share in the smartphone category (Google with their Android phone OS had about 3.5% global market share).
Sales estimates for the iPad range from 2 – 4 million units in 2010, up to 20 million units by end 2011.
What this means is that the vast majority of people browsing the web will continue to do so through computers that are capable of supporting Adobe Flash so there is no real driver to rush to re-engineer your Flash website or Flash components of an HTML site.
The vast majority of purchasers of the iPad, like myself, already have several other Apple iDevices (I have a first generation iPod shuffle, a first generation iPod Nano and a first generation iPod Touch and in a few weeks I'll have a first generation iPad). But I still do most of my web browsing on a PC (not a Mac. I'm a PC!).
Doubtless some are rushing to find Flashless ways of presenting their content, but how many people are really going to pay $17.99 per month (plus 3G fees of up to $30 per month) just to read the Wall Street Journal on an iPad? Not many I'll wager. No, the iPad is for serving more content from iTunes and selling more apps to front-end and package existing web content. Doubtless the iPad will influence the future of personal computing but it won't own the web any more than the iPhone owns the smartphone market and it won't cause the demise of Flash either.
So why am I buying an iPad then? Well, I like the convenience of my iPod Touch. I turn it on, touch the safari icon and start browsing the web. No waiting for my PC to boot, ne need to use my mouse, trackpoint device or gesture on my touchpad. When I'm done, I simply hit the power button and it turns off, no shout-down sequence. It's like that holy grail of computing, a computer that's a simple to operate as a toaster.
I believe the iPad will be the same, only, as I approach 50, one I'll be able to read without reading glasses! What lets the iPhone and iPod Touch down as web devices is the small screen when viewing expansive content. I find myself continuously scrolling, expanding and contracting the view. I think the iPad will do away with this. So I'll be have ready access to the web when I'm waiting for a flight, or lounging at home and want to look something up but don't want to boot up my PC or laptop. And when I travel I'll be able to take my preferred content with me – music, videos, books and more in one simple, small form factor, device.
Just as other companies followed Apple's lead in device form and function, so they will follow Apple's iPad. But, running different operating systems they'll have different capabilities – perhaps that USB port and support of Flash that will add utility over the iPad and challenge Apple in those market segments aimed more at creators of content. The release of the iPad is just the opening skirmish in this next round of battle and it's way to early to call victory and cry “All hail Emperor Jobs!”
As a photographer, I'd like to explore the potential of the iPad to replace my Epson P-5000 storage viewer but it has a few things going against it there also, particularly, even at 64Gb, its capacity is smaller than my P-5000 which is 3 years old, and as a Canon user, I record to CF cards and currently the iPad card reader accessory is for SD cards only. Apple does also sell a USB connector for direct import from the camera so perhaps with the right app this could allow tethered shooting to the iPad (and perhaps it can be abused to allow other content to be moved on and off the iPad but I suspect when plugged in it identifies the connected unit only as a camera – may be worth playing with though.) Its use as a portable, interactive, portfolio is obvious.
